QUANT WEST 2 - SPIE PATTERN - IDENTIFYING SIGNIFCANT PULL BACK ENTRY ZONES
The recent low coincided with west side of MBCP’s
Case Study 2: The recent low coincided with west side of MBCP’s. MBCP's are multiple bell curve peaks for various time periods price action.
This is the most traded area of the previous months by time. A very common pattern.
Pattern operational dates Q4 - 2023 Oct-Dec 23
Performance summary
Pattern ID |
Count |
PnL |
Idx.Pnl |
Rel. PnL |
Avg. ABS PnL |
Avg. REL PnL |
Avg. Days |
Winning Count (ABS) |
Avg Winning Pnl (ABS) |
Winning Count (REL) |
Avg Winning Pnl (REL) |
Avg. Entry Efficiency |
Avg. Exit Efficiency |
13 (QW2)
|
100
|
9,064,417
|
5,062,041
|
4,002,379 |
90,644 |
40,024 |
30 |
79 (79%) |
124,361 |
61 (61%) |
89,686 |
67 |
78 |
* Investment per trade $1M,
** Values are net profit ($)
*** The benchmark is the S&P 500 index
Absolute, Relative PnL and Sector
Sector | Count | PnL | PnL (IDX) | Rel. PnL (IDX) | Avg. PnL (ABS) | Avg. PnL (REL) | AvgDays |
Energy | 1 | 85,776 | 84,186 | 1,590 | 85,776 | 1,590 | 30 |
Materials | 8 | 763,431 | 515,334 | 248,098 | 95,429 | 31,012 | 30.4 |
Industrials | 10 | 746,667 | 489,662 | 257,005 | 74,667 | 25,700 | 30.1 |
Consumer Discretionary | 16 | 2,476,215 | 768,205 | 1,708,010 | 154,763 | 106,751 | 30.4 |
Consumer Staples | 5 | 432,629 | 276,480 | 156,149 | 86,526 | 31,230 | 30.6 |
Health Care | 7 | 262,256 | 346,825 | -84,569 | 37,465 | -12,081 | 30.1 |
Financials | 19 | 1,142,234 | 826,923 | 315,312 | 60,118 | 16,595 | 30.4 |
Technology | 16 | 1,213,903 | 850,531 | 363,372 | 75,869 | 22,711 | 30.9 |
Communications | 9 | 1,242,152 | 353,970 | 888,183 | 138,017 | 98,687 | 30.7 |
Utilities | 3 | 95,756 | 117,560 | -21,804 | 31,919 | -7,268 | 30 |
Real Estate | 6 | 514,994 | 345,685 | 169,309 | 85,832 | 28,218 | 30.5 |
11 | 100 | 8,976,013 | 4,975,361 | 4,000,655 | 49,754 | 40,007 | |
Performance Graphs - Absolute and Relative PnL
- Sector
Absolute and Relative PnL - Industry
Industry |
Sector |
Count |
PnL |
PnL (IDX) |
Rel. PnL (IDX) |
Avg. PnL (ABS) |
Avg. PnL (REL) |
Days |
|
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Energy | 1 | 85,776 | 84,186 | 1,590 | 85,776 | 1,590 | 30 |
Chemicals | Materials | 4 | 472,290 | 243,267 | 229,024 | 118,073 | 57,256 | 30.5 |
Containers & Packaging | Materials | 1 | 88,032 | 84,186 | 3,845 | 88,032 | 3,845 | 30 |
Metals & Mining | Materials | 3 | 203,110 | 187,881 | 15,229 | 67,703 | 5,076 | 30.3 |
Aerospace & Defense | Industrials | 2 | 257,227 | 86,681 | 170,546 | 128,613 | 85,273 | 30 |
Construction & Engineering | Industrials | 1 | 185,076 | 105,179 | 79,897 | 185,076 | 79,897 | 31 |
Electrical Equipment | Industrials | 2 | 75,315 | 97,736 | -22,421 | 37,658 | -11,210 | 30 |
Industrial Conglomerates | Industrials | 1 | 73,146 | 88,987 | -15,841 | 73,146 | -15,841 | 30 |
Machinery | Industrials | 2 | 92,538 | 19,686 | 72,852 | 46,269 | 36,426 | 30 |
Road & Rail | Industrials | 2 | 63,365 | 91,394 | -28,029 | 31,682 | -14,014 | 30 |
Auto Components | Consumer Discretionary | 1 | 97,049 | 105,179 | -8,129 | 97,049 | -8,129 | 31 |
Household Durables | Consumer Discretionary | 1 | 128,822 | 84,186 | 44,636 | 128,822 | 44,636 | 30 |
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Consumer Discretionary | 3 | 493,642 | 97,549 | 396,093 | 164,547 | 132,031 | 30 |
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Consumer Discretionary | 3 | 528,662 | 186,595 | 342,067 | 176,221 | 114,022 | 30.3 |
Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Consumer Discretionary | 2 | 508,673 | 152,148 | 356,525 | 254,336 | 178,262 | 31 |
Multiline Retail | Consumer Discretionary | 2 | 75,126 | 22,815 | 52,311 | 37,563 | 26,156 | 31 |
Specialty Retail | Consumer Discretionary | 4 | 644,241 | 119,733 | 524,507 | 161,060 | 131,127 | 30 |
Food & Staples Retailing | Consumer Staples | 1 | 136,859 | 84,186 | 52,672 | 136,859 | 52,672 | 30 |
Food Products | Consumer Staples | 2 | 220,377 | 94,766 | 125,611 | 110,189 | 62,805 | 31 |
Tobacco | Consumer Staples | 1 | 65,160 | 84,186 | -19,027 | 65,160 | -19,027 | 30 |
Household Products | Consumer Staples | 1 | 10,234 | 13,341 | -3,107 | 10,234 | -3,107 | 31 |
Health Care Equipment & Supplies | Health Care | 3 | 78,030 | 162,213 | -84,183 | 26,010 | -28,061 | 30 |
Health Care Providers & Services | Health Care | 1 | -56,997 | -2,499 | -54,498 | -56,997 | -54,498 | 30 |
Biotechnology | Health Care | 3 | 241,223 | 187,110 | 54,113 | 80,408 | 18,038 | 30.3 |
Commercial Banks | Financials | 7 | 256,738 | 367,953 | -111,215 | 36,677 | -15,888 | 30.3 |
Diversified Financial Services | Financials | 1 | 100,652 | 89,179 | 11,473 | 100,652 | 11,473 | 30 |
Consumer Finance | Financials | 5 | 236,786 | 190,363 | 46,424 | 47,357 | 9,285 | 30.6 |
Capital Markets | Financials | 2 | 199,095 | 94,766 | 104,329 | 99,548 | 52,165 | 31 |
Insurance | Financials | 4 | 348,963 | 84,662 | 264,300 | 87,241 | 66,075 | 30.3 |
IT Services | Information Technology | 2 | 90,067 | 125,187 | -35,120 | 45,033 | -17,560 | 32 |
Software | Information Technology | 4 | 224,615 | 133,952 | 90,663 | 56,154 | 22,666 | 30.8 |
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Information Technology | 1 | 99,424 | 88,987 | 10,437 | 99,424 | 10,437 | 30 |
Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Information Technology | 1 | 137,948 | 80,526 | 57,423 | 137,948 | 57,423 | 30 |
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Information Technology | 8 | 661,848 | 421,878 | 239,970 | 82,731 | 29,996 | 30.9 |
Diversified Telecommunication Services | Communication Services | 1 | 91,307 | 73,372 | 17,935 | 91,307 | 17,935 | 31 |
Wireless Telecommunication Services | Communication Services | 1 | -15,000 | 25,314 | -40,314 | -15,000 | -40,314 | 32 |
Media | Communication Services | 2 | 140,283 | 191,973 | -51,690 | 70,141 | -25,845 | 31 |
Entertainment | Communication Services | 3 | 889,799 | 68,309 | 821,490 | 296,600 | 273,830 | 30.3 |
Interactive Media & Services | Communication Services | 4 | 271,527 | -9,995 | 281,522 | 67,882 | 70,381 | 30 |
Electric Utilities | Utilities | 3 | 95,756 | 117,560 | -21,804 | 31,919 | -7,268 | 30 |
Equity Real Estate, Investment Trusts (REITs) | Real Estate | 6 | 514,994 | 345,685 | 169,309 | 85,832 | 28,218 | 30.5 |
| 41 | 102 | 9,111,778 | 4,970,362 | 4,141,415 | 48,729 | 40,602 | |